Gold Futures Touch $4,500 After July CPI Matches Forecasts

Gold futures briefly crossed $4,500 per ounce on Wednesday after U.S. inflation matched market expectations, extending a sharp recovery from July lows.

December gold reached an intraday high of $4,500.90 before easing back toward $4,483, leaving the contract up about 1% on the session. The move took futures to their highest level in roughly two months and extended August’s advance to more than 8%.

Gold has now recovered almost 13% from its July 20 intraday low near $3,986.50, reversing much of the weakness that followed its earlier 2026 record run.

July CPI Rises 0.1% As Core Inflation Cools

The U.S. Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. Annual inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%, matching economists’ expectations.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% during the month and 2.5% over the previous 12 months. Shelter prices rose 0.1% and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly headline increase, while energy prices declined 1.5%.

The dollar weakened after the release while Treasury yields moved lower, helping precious metals extend their advance as traders reassessed the path for U.S. interest rates.

Gold Tests Major $4,500 Resistance

The CPI reaction pushed gold directly into the $4,500 area that traders had identified as the next major technical hurdle after the metal reclaimed $4,200.

Futures have advanced for four consecutive sessions, while investment demand has also strengthened alongside the price recovery. Wednesday’s first attempt above resistance reached $4,500.90 before sellers pushed the contract back below the level.

A sustained daily close above $4,500 would place the market beyond the resistance zone that capped the latest rebound. Failure to hold the area would leave the first significant pullback zone around the recent breakout levels below $4,400.

The rally is also reaching crypto-linked trading infrastructure. Coinbase opened regulated gold and silver futures to 24/7 trading in June, giving eligible traders access to precious-metals exposure through an around-the-clock market structure similar to crypto.

Physical Demand And Tax Policy Add To Gold Focus

Institutional and reserve demand remains elevated alongside the futures rally. Tether’s physical gold holdings recently approached 150 tonnes after the stablecoin issuer accumulated 27.1 tonnes during the first half of 2026.

The buying adds another large private source of physical demand to a market already supported by central banks, ETFs and investors seeking exposure to scarce assets during periods of monetary and geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold’s advance also comes as Donald Trump considers capital-gains tax cuts ahead of the 2026 midterms, including a potential system that would adjust asset cost bases for inflation. Such a structure could reduce taxable real gains on appreciating assets if ultimately applied broadly, although no legislation or formal proposal has been introduced.