The first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on Sept. 10 did not include any discussion of crypto or Bitcoin, even when the discussion covered the economy. The candidates focused on traditional topics such as foreign policy, immigration, and abortion rights.
Prior to the debate, Trump held a slight lead in prediction markets. On crypto-based Polymarket, Trump’s odds were at 53% compared to Harris’ 46%. However, post-debate, both candidates are tied at 49% each on Polymarket, a seven-point swing. As of press time, $865,183,218 has been bet on the outcome of the election. On PredictIt, a non-crypto market available in the US, the shift was more pronounced, with Harris’ odds rising to 56% and Trump’s falling to 47% after the debate. Harris has also taken a slight lead on traditional betting sites.
A Polymarket market on the outcome of the debate stands at 98% for Harris winning the debate with just under $1 million wagered.
The debate’s outcome appeared to negatively impact Bitcoin’s price. Following the event, Bitcoin’s value dropped by approximately 3%, falling from around $58,000 to $56,100. It has since recovered to around $56,800 as of press time. This decline coincided with Trump’s decreased odds in the prediction markets.
It’s worth noting that Bitcoin had already experienced a significant 8% drop on Sept. 6, when Trump had his largest lead across Polymarket and closest odds on PredictIt. This indicates that Bitcoin’s price movements are not entirely correlated to Trump’s chances of winning the debate.
Despite the lack of direct discussion about crypto during the debate, the market’s reaction indicates that investors and traders are closely watching the election’s developments and their potential implications for the crypto industry. Trump has expressed support for the crypto sector, while Harris has not yet clearly articulated her stance on digital assets, leaving crypto out of her policy documents.