CLARITY Act 2026 Odds Collapse To 20% As Senate Path Narrows

Prediction-market confidence in the CLARITY Act has collapsed, with traders now assigning only a 20% chance that the U.S. crypto market-structure bill will be signed into law before the end of 2026.

The Polymarket contract on H.R. 3633 has generated more than $7.2 million in volume and requires the legislation to pass both chambers of Congress and receive presidential approval by December 31. The market reached 82% on February 19, leaving the implied probability down 62 percentage points from its 2026 high.

Senate Delay Reverses Months Of CLARITY Optimism

The latest pricing marks a dramatic reversal from May, when Kalshi traders put the bill’s 2026 passage odds at 71% following its Senate Banking breakthrough. Confidence had already slipped toward 56% later that month as traders began pricing the harder floor-vote mathematics.

The bill cleared Senate Banking in a 15-9 vote on May 14, but only two Democrats joined Republicans. Its floor path requires broader bipartisan support to overcome the Senate’s 60-vote threshold.

Momentum deteriorated further after the legislation missed its July 4 target and negotiations pushed deeper into the summer. An updated version was still being prepared in mid-July as lawmakers targeted a vote before the August recess.

September 15 Becomes Critical Senate Test

The Senate ultimately left Washington without completing the vote. Majority Leader John Thune has filed for cloture, setting up a September 15 procedural vote that will require 60 senators to advance the legislation. The chamber returns September 14 and has only 14 scheduled session days before its October election recess.

That timetable intensifies the same problem identified when the bill entered its pre-recess 60-vote Senate test. Negotiators still face disputes around ethics restrictions, anti-money-laundering rules, stablecoin rewards, community-bank concerns and protections for non-custodial developers.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins had previously argued that the CLARITY Act could provide a durable statutory foundation for digital asset oversight, rather than leaving policy primarily dependent on agency rulemaking.

SEC Rules Become Next Regulatory Catalyst

With congressional odds deteriorating, U.S. crypto policy is increasingly moving through the SEC and CFTC. The SEC this week proposed crypto fundraising exemptions of up to $75 million annually, alongside a conditional safe harbor addressing when crypto assets can move beyond investment-contract status.

Agency rules can reshape token issuance, trading and market access, but Congress remains the route to a more durable split of authority between the SEC and CFTC.