Polymarket Trader Collects $9.24M After Perfect World Cup Bet Run

A Polymarket trader closed four winning World Cup positions in one day, collecting approximately $9.24 million in payouts after correctly betting against several favored teams.

The account, trading under the name mintblade, recorded roughly $1.08 million in one-day profit after the markets settled.

The largest trade came from Iran’s match against New Zealand. Mintblade spent about $7.03 million betting that Iran would not win and received approximately $7.34 million after the teams finished level.

Iran twice recovered from a deficit in the 2-2 draw but could not find a winning goal before full time. The result settled the anti-Iran position successfully because either a New Zealand victory or a draw was enough for the bet to win.

Combined with three other successful positions, the account finished the day with four wins from four bets.

Argentina Loss Wipes Out Another Whale’s Bet

Not every large contrarian position survived the World Cup schedule.

Polymarket trader weatherman12 reportedly committed $1.81 million across two correlated positions ahead of Argentina’s match against Algeria. The trader wagered that Argentina would lose and also backed Algeria +1.5 on the spread, creating a strategy that depended on the underdog keeping the match competitive. Had Algeria secured a victory or earned a draw, both positions would have settled in the money.

Instead, Argentina delivered a dominant 3-0 victory.

The result immediately invalidated the bet on an Argentina loss. Algeria also failed to cover the +1.5 spread because the team lost by three goals rather than one. As a result, both positions settled as losers, wiping out the reported $1.81 million stake if the trader held the contracts through resolution.

The pre-match setup offered a potential $2.65 million profit if Argentina lost. The final score produced the opposite outcome, illustrating how quickly a concentrated strategy can unravel when multiple positions rely on the same match scenario.

Draws Deliver Some Of The Largest Payouts

Mintblade’s winning session followed another major payout when a newly created wallet made more than $9 million after Cape Verde held Spain to a draw. That account paired a bet against the favorite with spread protection on the underdog.

A similar structure worked when Australia defeated Türkiye 2-0. LEEEROYJENKINS backed Türkiye not to win and Australia +1.5, with both legs settling successfully after the outright upset.

The Argentina-Algeria result exposed the other side of the same strategy. Betting against a favorite and adding the underdog spread can produce two winning positions from one upset or draw. A decisive favorite victory can also defeat both positions at once.

World Cup Markets Attract Larger Positions

The size of the Iran and Argentina wagers shows how much liquidity has entered individual World Cup prediction markets. Multimillion-dollar positions can now settle within hours, with traders using outright outcomes, double-chance structures and spread markets to build concentrated match exposure.

Mintblade collected approximately $9.24 million across four successful bets, while Weatherman12 risked $1.81 million across two correlated positions that both failed when Argentina won by three goals.