Galaxy Cuts CLARITY Act Odds To 60% As Prediction Markets Hover Near 50%

Galaxy Digital’s head of research Alex Thorn has reduced the firm’s estimated probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 60%, down from a previous 75% assessment, citing a narrowing legislative window in the Senate.

The revised outlook reflects growing concern over the congressional calendar rather than a collapse in political support. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 still requires Senate floor consideration, debate over amendments, reconciliation of outstanding policy issues and final approval before reaching the president.

With lawmakers facing a limited number of usable legislative days before extended recess periods and year-end deadlines, timing has become a central factor in the bill’s prospects. Supporters continue to argue that the measure has bipartisan momentum, but procedural delays could significantly complicate its path.

The CLARITY Act remains one of the most closely watched crypto market-structure proposals in Washington. The legislation would establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, define jurisdictional boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and provide more certainty for token issuers and crypto businesses operating in the United States.

The downgrade also lands as crypto groups push Senate leaders to finish the CLARITY Act vote, turning the bill into one of the industry’s biggest U.S. policy priorities before the summer window closes.

Prediction Markets Remain Less Optimistic

Live prediction markets continue to assign lower odds than Galaxy’s revised estimate.

Kalshi’s crypto market-structure legislation contract is pricing the chance of qualifying legislation becoming law before 2027 near the 50% level. The market’s rules require a bill that establishes a comprehensive digital-asset framework, delineates federal agency oversight and creates definitions or classifications for digital assets.

Polymarket traders are expressing a similar view. The platform’s CLARITY Act market has moved around the coin-flip zone, indicating that participants see the outcome as only slightly more likely than not depending on the latest trading window.

The convergence between Kalshi and Polymarket is notable because both markets have moved lower from the more optimistic levels seen after key committee developments earlier in the legislative process. A previous Kalshi CLARITY Act odds surge showed traders assigning a stronger chance of passage after the Senate vote setup improved. The latest pricing shows that traders are now separating committee progress from the harder floor calendar.

While Galaxy still assigns a higher probability than prediction markets, all three signals now point to a more challenging path than was expected several weeks ago.

Stablecoin Yield And Enforcement Issues Remain Key Obstacles

Several policy disputes continue to complicate negotiations.

One of the most contentious issues involves stablecoin yield and rewards programs. Traditional financial institutions have pushed for tighter restrictions on products that resemble interest-bearing deposits, while crypto companies argue that users should be allowed to receive rewards tied to network participation and transaction activity.

Lawmakers are also continuing to debate anti-money-laundering provisions, illicit-finance safeguards and the treatment of non-custodial software developers. Critics of broad exemptions argue that enforcement agencies need sufficient authority to address criminal activity involving digital assets. Industry advocates counter that developers who do not control customer funds should not be regulated as financial intermediaries.

These unresolved questions have contributed to delays and remain among the primary issues that Senate leadership must address before bringing the legislation to the floor.

Floor Scheduling May Determine The Outcome

The CLARITY Act has already cleared a major hurdle by advancing through the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 vote, demonstrating that the proposal has a viable legislative foundation.

However, committee approval does not guarantee final passage. Senate floor time remains scarce, and supporters must still navigate procedural requirements, amendment votes and broader political negotiations. That is the same unresolved path that followed the CLARITY Act Senate Banking Committee breakthrough, when the bill advanced but still faced open questions over timing, final vote math and policy language.

Galaxy’s reduction from 75% to 60% reflects that reality. The firm continues to view passage as more likely than not, but the margin for delay has narrowed considerably.

Prediction markets are sending a similar message. Kalshi and Polymarket traders are effectively treating the legislation as a near coin-flip outcome, suggesting that investors and political observers see procedural timing as just as important as policy support.